Research

As researcher I aspire to contribute to reducing unequal opportunities in persons’ chances to have a fulfilling life. Public policy is the key means by which societies can influence a person’s life chances. My research focuses on a segment of the population that is known to have lower life chances (those in poverty or those at high risk of poverty) and on a policy domain that plays a key role in reducing inequalities in life chances (social policy). My research contributes knowledge for efficient and effective social policies and thus better life chances for disadvantaged groups in our societies.

ONGOING PROJECTS

Material deprivation in Canada

What works? Understanding variation in provincial poverty reduction strategies

How pro-poor are social transfers? Combining income and material deprivation indicators

COMPLETED PROJECTS

Child poverty in Ontario: The value added of child focused material outcomes

Adult skills levels and low income in Canada

The many faces of child poverty

Multidimensional poverty in the Republic of Congo

Poverty and consumption smoothing in Russia

Comparing official poverty in the United States and the European Union

Poverty reduction effects of means-tested and universal child benefits in Russia

 

 

Material deprivation in Canada

Timeline: 2016 – ongoing

Description

In Europe, Australia and New Zealand, material deprivation statistics are collected annually and are used by academics, policy makers and interests groups as a complement to low-income statistics. This paper is the first to offer a nationally and provincially representative analysis of the incidence of adverse material well-being outcomes in Canada. Using material well-being data from the one-time Canadian Survey of Economic Well-being (CSEW, 2013) we construct a material deprivation index, study the incidence and correlates of material deprivation across socio-demographic groups, and explore the overlap in incidence between material deprivation, low-income and economic hardship.

Findings and contributions

Our tests show that all deprivation items available in the CSEW could be used to feed into an index that meets the scientific criteria of suitability, validity, reliability and additivity. The Canadian material deprivation index behaves as do similar indices used in other countries. First, setting a deprivation cut-off is the most influential methodological decision affecting material deprivation rates. Second, socio-economic groups that are known to have a high risk of low income often, but not always, also have a high risk of material deprivation and economic hardship. Third, the population identified as materially deprived only partially overlaps with the population identified as low income. Because some Canadians are identified as having a low income, others as materially deprived, and another group as having both this means that the total population that could be experiencing poverty level living conditions is considerably larger than what is measured by Canada’s low income indicators. Fourth, by far most materially deprived persons also report experiencing economic hardship. However, there is also a significant population in Canada that reports economic hardship that is not materially deprived suggesting that a broader population could be experiencing economic hardship. In sum, this paper shows that identifying Canadians experiencing poverty level living conditions requires more than measuring low incomes alone, and that an index measuring material well-being outcomes associated with poverty level living conditions would be a useful complement to low-income indicators.

Collaborators
• Julie Charest, Income Statistics, Statistics Canada; and
• Andrew Heisz, Business and Labour Market Analysis Division, Statistics Canada.

Output

Charest, J., Material deprivation in Canada, presented at the Canadian Economic Association conference on 2 June 2017 at St. Frances Xavier University.

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What works? Understanding variation in provincial poverty reduction strategies

Timeline: 2013 – ongoing

Description

Through the launch of Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRS), Canadian provinces aim to gain better results towards the reduction of poverty by improving the impact of specific policies and by increasing the coherence between different policies. These PRSs are innovative, comprehensive approaches to managing poverty reduction efforts that enable governments to identify more cost-effective and coherent policies. This project aims to produce reliable knowledge that can serve as a basis to improve decision-making and delivery of poverty reduction initiatives across Canada. Unfortunately, there is no blueprint for poverty reduction, thus provinces have adopted diverse approaches and strategies to reforming key institutional arrangements, which include: full day kindergarten, new investments in affordable housing units, increases to the minimum wage, skills training, efforts to support vulnerable workers, and a review of social assistance programs. To date, scholars have not systematically studied and compared Poverty Reduction Strategies across jurisdictions. Yet, with so many initiatives currently underway, this is an opportune moment to study provincial Poverty Reduction Strategies and their medium term effects on policy and well-being.

Canadian provinces offer a rich site for comparative analysis of poverty reduction initiatives and for examining the nature of variation in terms of policy outcomes that result from these initiatives. The data gathered through our project will enable researchers and policy makers to (1) understand in richer detail the variation in Poverty Reduction Strategies; (2) assess the causal pathways through which poverty reduction initiatives are connected to individual well-being; and (3) design policy solutions to achieve sustained poverty reduction and growth.

As of April 2016 this project receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC).

(Preliminary) findings

Tools commonly used in program evaluation and performance-based management may also improve the monitoring of PRSs.  Our research suggests that, even though most governments monitor progress using various outcome indicators, little information is reported on whether government actions have contributed to changes in the outcome metrics.

Despite using the common label, there is quite some diversity in the way PRSs are implemented across provinces.

Collaborators

• Rachel Laforest, Associate Professor, School of Policy Studies, Queen’s University.

Output

Notten, G. and R. Laforest (2016). “Poverty Reduction Strategies in Canada: A new way to tackle an old problem?”, UNU-MERIT Working Paper, #2016-057, Maastricht University, p. 1-54.

Since May 2014 I’ve coordinated the blog On Poverty Reduction. The blog offers posts on Poverty Reduction Strategies in Canada and beyond highlighting a range of perspectives and opinions on the subject from contributing academics (including myself), practitioners and representatives from the non-profit sector.

AuCoin, E., L. Hills, G. Notten (May 2015). “Comparing Apples and Oranges? Poverty Reduction Strategies in Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Ontario, and Quebec.” Research note.

Notten, G. (28 August 2014), “ON Poverty Reduction – Strategy at Work: Interim report”, Report, published online on the On Poverty Reduction project website.

I participated in the Poverty Reduction Strategy Technical Advisory Group (TAG) in the meeting on targets and indicators organized by the Government of Ontario in Toronto on 24 September 2013 (By invitation, required signing of a confidentiality agreement).

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How pro-poor are social transfers? Combining income and material deprivation indicators

Timeline: 2010 – ongoing

Description

This research investigates whether the estimated effect of social transfers on poverty reduction depends on the choice of welfare indicator. Such evaluation is generally based on income. Because indicators have different strengths and weaknesses, they regularly disagree about a person’s poverty status. This also means they may disagree about the poverty reduction effect. This research studies these issues in various European Union Member States.

This project is part of the international research project Poverty Reduction in Europe: Social Policy and Innovation (ImPRovE).

Findings and contributions

This research finds that a transfer’s targeting performance does not differ much when defining the transfer’s target group either as the poorest income quintile or the poorest material deprivation quintile. Yet, when combining the information from both indicators, transfers appear much more effective in reaching those groups that both poverty indicators identify as part of the target group. Transfers also appear much more efficient in excluding non-target populations. For the groups on which the poverty indicators disagree, more analysis is needed. Triangulation between poverty indicators thus improves the validity of program evaluations as it enables a better separation between (potential) poverty measurement issues and the measurement of a program’s (potential) effects.

Collaborator

• Anne-Catherine Guio, Luxembourg Institute for Socio-Economic Research (LISER).

Output

Notten, G. and A.C. Guio (Forthcoming), “The impact of social transfers on income poverty and material deprivation”, Edited by B. Cantillon, T. Goedemé and J. Hills, 1-23.

Notten, G. and A.C. Guio (September 2016), The impact of social transfers on income poverty and material deprivation, ImPRovE Working Paper, Antwerp, BE, 1-31.

Notten, G. (15 February 2016), Measuring poverty using money only: A risky business for poverty reduction, Public Sector Digest, 1-8. OPEN ACCESS COPY.

Notten, G. (2015), How poverty indicators confound poverty reduction evaluations: The targeting performance of income transfers in Europe, Social Indicators Research, 1-18. OPEN ACCESS COPY.

Notten, G. (September 2013), Measuring performance: Does the assessment depend on the poverty proxy?, ImPRovE Working Paper 13/13, Antwerp, BE, 1-46.

Notten, G., David, K. and K. Sy (23 July 2013), Research note on income transfers in Germany, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom, Unpublished manuscript.

Notten, G., (June 2013), Measuring performance: Does the assessment depend on the poverty proxy?, UNU-MERIT Working Paper, WP2013-031, Maastricht University, Maastricht, NL, 1-43.

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Child poverty in Ontario: The value added of child focused material outcomes

Timeline: 2012 – ongoing

Description

In comparison to Europe and Australia, Canada lags behind using non-monetary and poverty indicators such as material deprivation to study (child) poverty. Instead income indicators dominate research and policy-making. A large body of international research concludes that resource and outcome indicators are complementary because each measures specific but related aspects of poverty. Distinguishing between resources and outcomes is even more pertinent for children because they have specific needs and their material circumstances affect both their current and future well-being. This paper uses Ontario data to investigate whether material deprivation also contributes to a better understanding of child poverty in Canada.

Findings and contributions

This research shows that the choice of poverty indicator affects estimates of the level of child poverty, its correlates, and the success of interventions in reaching poor children. The findings thus also suggest that one cannot simply assume that the relationship between a child’s social economic status (SES) and other well-being outcomes is insensitive to the choice of how SES is measured. Using two indicators does not simplify the analysis but it better maps existing uncertainty and thereby includes children who would otherwise mistakenly be identified as non-poor. This research therefore concludes that also in North America it is important to complement income poverty with outcome-based poverty indicators such as material deprivation.

Output

Notten, G. (15 February 2016), Measuring poverty using money only: A risky business for poverty reduction, Public Sector Digest, 1-8. OPEN ACCESS COPY.

Notten, G. (2015), Child poverty in Ontario: The value added of material deprivation indicators for comparative policy analysis in North America, Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 1-19. OPEN ACCESS COPY.

Notten, G., (2013), Child deprivation in Ontario: A (less than perfect) comparison with Europe, UNU-MERIT Working Paper, WP2013-030, Maastricht University, Maastricht, NL, 1-30.

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Adult skills levels and low income in Canada

Timeline: 2014 – 2016

Description

This project uses the first wave of the Canadian Longitudinal and International Study of Adults (LISA) to explore the relationship between adults’ skills levels and their income. This unique dataset has direct measures of skills (literacy, numeracy and problem solving), matching those used in the OECD’s Program for International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), and high quality income data. This study explores how skills levels are distributed across the income distribution and between poor and non-poor population groups. It also assesses whether adult skills add explanatory power to other known correlates of poverty and inequality, such as education, work status and work experience.

Expected findings and contributions

While earlier work examined the relationship between a person’s skills and earnings, this project is the first to investigate the relationship between a person’s skills and welfare outcomes in terms of poverty and inequality. We find that having measures of skills enhances our understanding of the determinants of low income. Skills have an independent effect, even when controlling for other known correlates of low income, and their inclusion reduces the independent effect of education and immigrant status. This result is relevant for public policy development as the knowledge of the skills profile of the poor population can inform the design of efficient and effective programs.

Collaborators

• Andrew Heisz, Business and Labour Market Analysis Division, Statistics Canada; and
• Jerry Situ, Business and Labour Market Analysis Division, Statistics Canada.

Output

Heisz, A, Notten, G. and J. Situ (24 February 2016), The Association Between Skills and Income, Insights on Canadian Society, Statistics Canada. This article is an abridged version of the 2015 article below: click here for the link to the online article and here for the pdf version.

Heisz, A, Notten, G. and J. Situ (2015), The Role of Skills in Understanding Low Income in Canada, Research on Economic Inequality, Volume 23, Edited by T. Garner and K. Short. OPEN ACCESS COPY.

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The many faces of child poverty

Timeline: 2009 – 2013

Description

This project studies children’s living conditions in Germany, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The project focuses on the breadth of deprivation: to what degree does a child simultaneously experience deprivations across domains of well-being, how strongly are these deprivation outcomes related to income poverty and how effective are social protection transfers in reaching deprived children and their families? This research contributes to knowledge relevant for the identification of vulnerable groups of children and their coverage by various social protection programs. It also informs on the appropriate way to define poverty for children and it tests poverty measures that take cumulative deprivations into account.

Findings and Contributions

Roelen & Notten (2013) show that the EU could benefit from adding a multidimensional approach to measuring child poverty to its portfolio of poverty indicators. While wellbeing outcomes are positively correlated, a substantial share of the children experiencing poor outcomes in one dimension are not experiencing poor outcomes in other dimensions. This finding not only holds for the relationship between income and non-monetary indicators but also for the relationship between indicators from different well-being domains (e.g. access to basic services and material well-being).

Notten & Roelen (2012) reviewed and tested candidate measures that provide insight into the degree to which persons experience several unfavourable conditions at the same time (i.e. breadth of deprivation). The measures are empirically tested on survey data for the United Kingdom, Germany, France and the Netherlands. The findings indicate that the absolute adjusted headcount with a cumulative threshold of one deprivation is the most attractive candidate: it has an intuitive interpretation; it is sensitive to the breadth of deprivations but not oversensitive to changes in the methodology.

Discussion papers Notten & Roelen (2011) and Roelen & Notten (2011) contributed to the development of the methodology used in the 2012 publication of UNICEF’s Innocenti Research Centre’s flagship publication “Measuring child poverty: New league tables of child poverty in the world’s richest countries” (Innocenti Report Card 10).

Collaborators

• Keetie Roelen, Research Fellow, Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Sussex (United Kingdom).

Output

Roelen, K. and G. Notten (2013), “The Breadth of Child Poverty in Europe: An Investigation into Overlap of Deprivations”, Public Policy and Poverty, 5(4), 319-334. OPEN ACCESS COPY.

Notten, G. and K. Roelen (2012), A New Tool for Monitoring (Child) Poverty: Measures of Cumulative Deprivation, Child Indicators Research, 5 (2), 335-355. OPEN ACCESS COPY.  Click here for the Policy brief which provides a non-technical summary of this study.

Notten, G. and K. Roelen (2011), Monitoring Child Well-being in the European Union: Measuring cumulative deprivation, Innocenti Discussion Paper, Innocenti Research Centre, Florence, 1-49.

Roelen, K. and G. Notten (2011), The Breadth of Child Poverty in Europe: An investigation into overlap and accumulation of deprivations, Innocenti Discussion Paper, Innocenti Research Centre, Florence, 1-40.

Notten, G. and K. Roelen (2010), Cross-national comparison of monetary and multidimensional child poverty in the European Union: puzzling with the few pieces that the EUSILC provides, BWPI Working Paper, 135, 1-71.

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Multidimensional poverty in the Republic of Congo

Timeline: 2007 – 2013

Description

This project takes an academic look at our findings from the study “La Pauvreté Multidimensionnelle des Enfants et Femmes en République du Congo” commissioned by UNICEF in Congo Brazzaville. The research shows that a multidimensional approach to poverty does not have to be used only for summarising poverty in a single index or for comparing deprivation rates between dimensions. Firstly, such an approach can additionally provide a contribution to a better understanding of the relationships between dimensions by studying the prevalence of multiple deprivations at an individual level. Secondly, the information embedded in such an approach can additionally be used to generate better poverty profiles. Both points are illustrated by taking the Republic of Congo as a case study.

Findings and Contributions

Hodges, Notten, O’Brien and Tiberti (2013) is one of the few studies that focuses on cash transfers in low and middle income countries. It is also the only study that provides a comprehensive analysis that compares costs, affordability, effects on poverty and human development and political and administrative feasibility for different program designs. Through its analytical breadth, this work revealed various qualifications regarding the scope of successful cash transfer programs in country contexts that had hitherto remained unaddressed in the academic literature (i.e., the challenge of designing an effective targeting strategy in the context of mass poverty).

Using information on the prevalence of multiple deprivations at the level of the child, Notten, de Neubourg, Makosso and Mpoue (2012) show that a multidimensional approach to poverty enables practitioners/policy makers to draw better poverty profiles. A better profile gives more direction for subsequent in depth problem analyses and policy making processes.

Notten (2009) shows that traditional monetary poverty analyses, which play a dominant role in the formulation of current Poverty Reduction Strategies and resulting policies, are too blunt a tool for identifying deprivation in the physical environment of children (e.g., water and sanitation, housing, and (access to) transport and information).

The multidimensional poverty estimates in Notten, Mpoue and Makosso (2008) were included in the final document of the Republic of Congo’s Poverty Reduction Strategy (21 March 2008).

Collaborators

• Antony Hodges, Development Consultant, Oxford Policy Management;
• Chris de Neubourg, Full Professor, Department of Economics, University of Maastricht;
• Bethuel Makosso, Assistant Professor, Université Marien Ngouabi;
• Alain Mpoue, Statistician, Centre National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques;
• Clare O’Brien, Senior Consultant, Oxford Policy Management; and
• Luca Tiberti, Research Fellow, Laval University.

Output

Hodges, A., Notten, G., O’Brien, C. and L. Tiberti, “Are cash transfers a realistic policy tool for poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa?: Evidence from Congo and Côte d’Ivoire”, Global Social Policy, 13(2), 2013, 166-190. OPEN ACCESS COPY.

Notten, G., C. de Neubourg, B. Makosso and A. Mpoue (2012), “A multidimensional profile of child poverty in Congo Brazzaville”, in Global Child Poverty and Well-Being, Edited by A. Minujin and S. Nandy, The Policy Press: Bristol, 287-305. OPEN ACCESS COPY.

Notten, G. (2009), “Is monetary poverty a suitable proxy for deprivation in the physical environment?”, Children, Youth, Environments, 19(2), 22-35. OPEN ACCESS COPY.

Notten, G., (2008), Multidimensional poverty in the Republic of Congo: being simultaneously poor in many ways, BWPI Working Paper, 65, 1-39.

Notten, G. and B. Buligescu, “Policy options to reduce child poverty and improve access to education and health care in the Republic of Congo: Cost and impact simulations”, Final report, funded and commissioned by UNICEF Congo Brazzavillle, 2008, 1-123.

Notten, G., A. Mpoue and B. Makosso, “La Pauvreté Multidimensionnelle des Enfants et Femmes en République du Congo”, Final report, funded and commissioned by UNICEF Congo Brazzavillle, 2008, 1-121.

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Poverty and consumption smoothing in Russia

Timeline: 2006 – 2012

Description

Using a panel from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (1994–2004), this research investigates to what extent Russian households have been able to maintain their living standards while suffering income shocks. Consumption smoothing is modelled by means of an equilibrium correction mechanism, which disentangles short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium adjustments. GMM estimation is used to control for individual household effects in the presence of dynamics. Additionally, we differentiate between food and non-food consumption, positive and negative shocks, rural and urban areas, and several levels of poverty risk. We find that dynamics are important in the consumption equation, and that estimates are sensitive to imputation errors in home food production. No strong claims can be made regarding heterogeneity in smoothing behaviour.

Findings and Contributions

Notten & de Crombrugghe (2012) show that dynamics are important in the consumption equation and that the previous consumption smoothing estimates were biased due to imputation errors in home food production. No strong claims can be made regarding heterogeneity in smoothing behaviour.

Collaborators

• Denis de Crombrugghe, Assistant Professor, Quantitative Economics, School of Business and Economics, Maastricht University.

Output

Notten, G. and D. de Crombrugghe (2012), “Consumption smoothing in Russia”, Economics of Transition, 20(3), 481-519. OPEN ACCESS COPY.

Notten, G., (2007), “Managing risks: what Russian households do to smooth consumption?”, MGSoG Working Paper 2007/004, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, Maastricht University, Maastricht,1-46.

Notten, G. and D. de Crombrugghe, (2006), “Poverty and Consumption Smoothing in Russia”, MGSoG Working Paper 2006/004, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, Maastricht University, Maastricht, 1-33.

Notten, G. and D. de Crombrugghe (2006), Poverty and Consumption Smoothing in Russia, MGSoG Working Paper 2006/004, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, Maastricht University, Maastricht.

Notten, G. (2006), Consumption smoothing abilities and strategies in Russia, in Assessment of the Labor Market Impact of the Pension Reform, 2006, 141-146.

Augsburg, B., Notten, G. and C. de Neubourg, “Poverty profile in Russia, in Assessment of the Labor Market Impact of the Pension Reform”, Chapter in “Russian Federation: Pension Reform”, Final Report, 2006, 141-146.

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Comparing official poverty in the United States and the European Union

Timeline: 2006-2011

Description

Financial poverty indicators play an important role in policymaking and the evaluation of economic development. Countries such as the USA and the EU member states use one or several ‘official’ poverty indicators on which progress is regularly monitored; whereas the US poverty indicator is based on an absolute concept of poverty, the EU poverty indicator is based on a relative concept. This project investigates the implications of using either an absolute or a relative poverty indicator on estimating poverty as well as on designing and evaluating poverty alleviating policies.

Findings and Contributions

Notten & de Neubourg (2011) show that the large variation in experiences among the 16 countries studied highlights the fact that there is no such thing as a typical pattern in poverty experience. These findings suggest that it makes more sense to monitor the wellbeing of low income groups using both absolute and relative poverty concepts.

Collaborators

• Chris de Neubourg, Full Professor, Department of Economics, University of Maastricht

Output

Notten, G. and C. de Neubourg (2011), “Monitoring absolute and relative poverty; ‘not enough’ is not the same as ‘much less’”, Review of Income and Wealth, 57(2), 247-269. OPEN ACCESS COPY.

Notten, G. (17 October 2008), “Absolute en relatieve armoede (Absolute and relative poverty), Economisch Statistische Berichten (Economic and Statistical Messages), 93 (4545), 625.

Notten, G. and C. de Neubourg, (2007), The policy relevance of absolute and relative poverty headcounts: What’s in a number?, MGSoG Working Paper, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, Maastricht University, Maastricht, 2007/006.

Notten, G. and C. de Neubourg, (2007), Poverty in Europe and the USA: Exchanging official measurement methods, MGSoG Working Paper, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, Maastricht University, Maastricht, 2007/005.

Notten, G. and C. de Neubourg, (2007), Relative or absolute poverty in the US and EU? The battle of the rates, MGSoG Working Paper, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, Maastricht University, Maastricht, 2007/001.

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Poverty reduction effects of means-tested and universal child benefits in Russia

Timeline: 2006-2008

Description

This research evaluates a policy change from universal to means-tested child allowances in terms of targeting efficiency and poverty reduction, taking the introduction of the latter form of benefits in Russia as a case-study. We use the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 2000 to 2004 to analyse the impact of the reforms and to simulate the effects of various means-tested and universal child benefit schemes. Since the reforms in 2000, more children have received benefits and there has been improved targeting of low income households. Nevertheless, both inclusion and exclusion errors are considerable and although the poverty reduction impact has improved marginally since the reforms, its effect on child poverty has been small. Our simulations show that universal schemes achieve additional poverty reductions with regard to all indicators because previously excluded children now also receive a benefit. However, size matters most: only by increasing benefit levels considerably can more substantial poverty reductions be achieved.

Findings and Contributions

Whereas previous contributions only focused on some aspect(s) of the trade-off between means-tested and universal programs, Notten & Gassmann’s (2008) analysis includes a wide range of costs and benefits. The study found that, after the reforms were introduced in 2000, more children received benefits and the targeting of low income households had improved. Nevertheless, both inclusion and exclusion errors were considerable; and, although the poverty reduction impact had improved marginally after the reforms, its effect on child poverty was small. The simulations showed that universal schemes achieve additional poverty reductions with regard to all indicators because previously excluded children started to receive a benefit. However, the key finding was that ‘size’ matters most; it is only by increasing benefit levels considerably that more substantial poverty reductions can be achieved.

Collaborators

• Franziska Gassmann, Senior Researcher, United Nations University (UNU-MERIT).

Output

Notten, G. and F. Gassmann (2008), “Size matters: poverty reduction effects of means-tested and universal child benefits in Russia”, Journal of European Social Policy, 18 (3), 260-74. OPEN ACCESS COPY.

Gassmann, F. and G. Notten (2007), “Targeted child benefits in Russia: To what extent do these benefits reduce child poverty?, in Social Protection Initiatives for Children, Women and Families,” Edited by A. Minujin and E. Delamonica, The New School: New York, 223-245.

Notten, G. and F. Gassmann (2006), “Size matters: poverty reduction effects of means-tested and universal child benefits in Russia”, MGSoG Working Paper, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, Maastricht University, Maastricht, 2006/001.

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